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The Background

When the Act of Union uniting Scotland, England and Wales into Great Britain was signed in 1707, there were riots in Edinburgh. The handful of Scottish nobles, who had determined Scotland’s fate in exchange for seats at Westminster and a warm welcome at George I of Hanover’s court, required a protective military escort to the Scottish Parliament before it finally closed its doors for three centuries. However, the majority of Scots had no idea that their interests had been sold down the river. They had not been consulted. Now, 300 years later, this is about to change: Alex Salmond and his Scottish National Party are planning a referendum on Scottish independence.

What happened after 1707? 1715 and 1745 witnessed the pro-Stuart uprisings against the Hanoverian monarchy, ending in the tragic battle of Culloden and Bonnie Prince Charlie’s defeat. The growing poverty of the Highlands was compounded by the Clearances in 1790-1845, during which small, unprofitable farms (crofts) were vacated to make way for millions of sheep and thousands of farmers emigrated to North America and Australia.

The Lowlands, by contrast, prospered from the tobacco trade and the Industrial Revolution, propelled by many Scottish inventions, including James Watt’s steam engine. Many Scots sought their fortune in the British Empire. For the next 150 years the Scots seemed resigned to occupying a backseat in British politics until the 1960s when oil and gas were discovered in the North Sea off Aberdeen and the Shetlands. Mrs Thatcher used the revenues to bankroll her policies in the 1980s and turn around the ailing British economy. Oil and gas production peaked at 125 million and 113 billion tonnes, respectively, in 1999. But after three decades of ruthless extraction, a decline set in. Fortunately, 1999 also saw the introduction of Scottish devolution. The Scottish Parliament, albeit with powers limited to education, health, agricultural and legal matters, is back in business.

Your Scotland, Your Referendum

The referendum, proposed by the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) for the autumn of 2014, will ask Scotland’s population of 5 million the following questions:

1. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

2. If you reject independence, do you agree with the ‘devolution max’ option? (In other words, should further powers be devolved to the Scottish Parliament?)

It is the second question that annoys the British Prime Minister David Cameron. Along with many Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, he feels that Alex Salmond is ‘milking’ the issue to ensure his self-promotion: Salmond will go down in history as the first prime minister of either a fully independent Scotland or of an ‘independent-lite’ Scotland (see below). To guarantee a large majority in favour, Salmond is further proposing to extend the vote to 16 and 17-year-olds. The two-year delay until the referendum is also likely to sway more voters, the pro-vote currently being at around 37%, with 21% undecided and 42% against.

Pros and Cons

According to news.scotsman.com, independence would be beneficial for the country’s domestic affairs but Scots are worried about the expense involved. Many want the referendum to be held earlier (e.g. in 2013) and prefer a single Yes/No question (should Scotland be part of the UK or not?). A majority appear to be in favour of ‘devolution max’ rather than independence.

Both the Conservative/Liberal-Democrat Coalition and Labour have promised further powers for Scotland, including the ability to raise local taxes up to £30 bn annually, irrespective of the referendum’s outcome.

Scotland already offers free university tuition (compared to the £9000 charged on average at English universities) and free prescriptions. Its health system is in better shape than the malingering NHS across the border. This is why the SNP claims the Scottish Parliament is more capable of running Scotland than the UK government.

In promoting Scottish independence, Salmond stresses the region’s social ‘progressivity’ rather than any concrete plans for the future. This is the project’s main weakness.

The Consequences in Real Terms

Defence

Type 26 Royal Navy ships planned to be built on the Clyde could be moved to Portsmouth instead, according to the Glasgow-based Daily Record. Thousands of jobs would be lost. But SNP leaders deny this will happen. The SNP, which is anti-nuclear, prefers the Trident nuclear fleet to be relocated, especially if, like the Republic of Ireland, Scotland decides to leave Nato. Previous UK defence cuts have minimised Scottish capabilities. Many Scottish soldiers, however, intend to remain with their UK regiments. The SNP’s intention to build ‘one naval base, one aircraft base and a mobile armed brigade’ and to ‘restore Scottish regiments’ has been ridiculed by the UK government. As defence of its energy resources and oil and gas platforms is vital, the Scottish government is interested in close defence ties with Denmark and Norway (part of Nato) and bases cost estimates on Danish and Norwegian expenditure. Nevertheless, the SNP realises joint cooperation with UK forces is essential.

The EU

Scotland would have to apply for EU membership, which might prove difficult if it were to abandon Nato. Spain might veto Scotland’s joining the club, fearing its problematic Basque province would follow suit and separate from Spain.

The euro

Traditionally, the SNP has favoured the European currency, but due to the recent crisis the euro has become highly unpopular. Joining the euro would mean subjecting Scotland to strict monetary rules beyond its control. Perhaps Scotland could join in the long term.

The pound

Opting for independence and keeping sterling has one huge drawback: the Bank of England would no longer be the bank of last resort and therefore would not bail out Scottish banks in a recession. (The Royal Bank of Scotland was the main beneficiary in the 2008 Credit Crunch.) A currency union would call for a joint stability pact. Despite being dictated to by Westminster, a common currency benefits cross-border trade and job mobility.

A new currency.

The risks are unpredictable.

The BBC or SBC?

Devolving broadcasting would have distinct disadvantages for Scottish viewers: access to favourite shows might be restricted or cost more. An independent SBC (Scottish Broadcasting Corporation) would have to be launched, financed by its own licence fee. It would have to take over existing English-language and Gaelic TV and radio stations. The best option would be to stay with the huge BBC, but with more Scottish-centred broadcasts.

Oil

An independent Scotland would have access to 90% of the UK’s oil production. Extraction is likely to slow down, in view of the dwindling resources, whilst Scotland’s green energy development is stepped up. However, after the many years of huge investments in the oil industry by London and international corporations, negotiations to opt out of the UK industry will be very complex. What rankles the Scots is that, unlike Norway, where the population benefits directly from its oil revenues, little money has been set aside for the future, e.g. in the form of pension funds.

Devo-max: independence-lite

Scotland keeps the Queen, sterling and the Bank of England, the BBC and continues to share UK foreign policy. Unless the Scottish National Party under Alex Salmond comes up with feasible policies for Scotland after independence, this is the option that most Scots currently favour.

Sources:

www.scotreferendum.com/consultation/briefing-note/

news.scotsman.com

heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/lamont-plans-commission-on-devolution.1330743852

dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2012/01/19/

dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2012/01/21

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/mar/03/scotland-devolution-new-powers-labour?INTCMP=SRCH

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/23/independent-scotland-beacon-progressive-opinion

guardian.co.uk/politics/series/reality-check-scottish-independence/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2012/feb/05/what-being-british-mean-interactive

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