London dieser Tage ist eine Stadt, die wie kaum zweite für sich reklamieren kann, dass der Reisende überall sonst auf der Erde lieber als an der Themse ein paar Tage verbringen möchte. Ausnahmen sind vielleicht noch Somalia und Syrien, Libyen und Afghanistan. Wie aber kommt es, dass ein Land, eine Stadt voll Glamour wie London, so abrupt in der Beliebtheitsskala der Reisenden abrutscht? Welches sind die Hintergründe - und auf welchen Ursachen fußen sie? Louise Taggart, Intelligence Analyst, hat interessante Antworten.

Norbert Gisder: Was ist los – in der britischen Hauptstadt des Sommers 2011?

Louise Taggart: The violence was sparked initially by the shooting of a man by police in the North London area of Tottenham on 4 August. A peaceful protest against the police’s handling of the case then led to an outbreak of violence on 6 August in Tottenham, an area that has had a strained relationship with the police in the past. Violence and looting then spread to other areas of London over the next two nights, mainly unrelated to the initial shooting. Similar incidents have now been seen in other English cities, including Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Nottingham, and Wolverhampton.

Like many other European cities, London has been feeling the effects of government spending cuts which have impacted on emergency services, education budgets, community funding, and employment opportunities. There had been no obvious indication, however, that such violence could erupt so suddenly and spread so rapidly.

Norbert Gisder: Welche Ursachen haben diese, den Bildern nach kriegsahnlichen Unruhen?

Louise Taggart: The cause of the initial violence in Tottenham seems to have been sparked by genuine anger at the police’s relationship and lack of engagement with the local community. Tottenham was the location of the Broadwater Farm riot in 1985 which saw one policeman killed, and although there have been improvements in policing strategy since then, police-community relations have continued to be strained.

However, the wider violence across London and other cities seems to have little connection to the initial shooting in Tottenham, and instead is a manifestation both of underlying socio-economic issues, and of opportunistic criminal behaviour. A combination of several factors seems to have contributed to the violence, including a general sense of hopelessness amongst many young people caused by lack of opportunities, high levels of unemployment and poverty, as well as poor parenting skills, and a loss of social responsibility. The extent of wilful criminality and lack of conscience exhibited by many of the participants also illustrates a general lack of regard for authority, and in particular the police.

Norbert Gisder: Was unternimmt die Regierung, um ein Leben in Frieden wieder herzustellen?

Louise Taggart: The London Metropolitan Police has been criticised for its handling of the initial violence in Tottenham and for delays in reacting to the first scenes of looting. However, on the evening of 9-10 August, 16000 police personnel were deployed in London and only limited and isolated incidents of violence were reported, indicating that a much larger police presence is serving to deter the rioters.  The government has indicated that an increased number of police will remain on the streets for as long as is necessary.

There has been criticism too for the length of time it took for senior members of the coalition government to return to London during Parliament’s summer recess. Spending cuts, particularly regarding the emergency services, are already being probed and the government will no doubt face an increasing number of questions over their budget plans when Parliament returns to sit on 11 August.

Norbert Gisder: In wieweit ist das drastische Sparprogramm der Regierung Schuld an den Unruhen?

Louise Taggart: Several parts of the austerity programme have already been questioned publicly, by opposition MPs as well as by public figures, including London Mayor Boris Johnson. The most immediate questions have been regarding the emergency services spending review, which saw the police budget facing cuts of up to 20 per cent.  Although the government has insisted that front-line staff would not be sacrificed, such large cuts nevertheless leave the austerity plans open to the criticism that police resources are now too stretched to cope with large-scale incidents. Opposition MPs have also suggested that issues such as the increase in university tuition fees and a cut in the educational allowance payment have contributed to the general feeling of malcontent amongst young people in several of the areas that have witnessed violence, and the government may find it increasingly difficult to push through all of its planned budget cuts. However, blaming austerity cuts for the unrest only oversimplifies the multidimensional nature of the discontent.

Norbert Gisder: Haben die Unruhen ihre Ursachen im Zweiklassensystem Englands?

Louise Taggart: There are still obvious divisions within British society, but to blame the unrest on the class system would be to take too broad a view. There is a growing acknowledgement that many of the participants were from areas which experience high levels of poverty and unemployment, although these are issues which also exist in countries without a distinct class system. The violence undoubtedly has deep social and economic roots which may be exacerbated by class differences or perceptions of class difference, but it was also the culmination of many different issues.

Norbert Gisder: Welche Auswirkungen haben die Unruhen auf die Olympische Spiele 2012?

Louise Taggart: The unrest obviously raises serious security issues for the 2012 Olympics, although the impact may be less negative than would be first imagined. The violence has afforded the police with an opportunity to reassess their strategies for handling large-scale unrest and disorder, which are difficult to replicate in a training situation. The most negative repercussions may be on London’s image in the international press in the build-up to the Olympics.

Norbert Gisder: Und welche Auswirkungen haben sie auf die Menschen?

Louise Taggart: Initially there was concern amongst many people in London, as violence was flaring up in areas across the city and there was a sense that no-one knew where the next location would be. However, since 9 August, there has been a growing indication that communities are moving to reclaim their local areas, and coordinated teams have been cleaning up streets and shops amidst a growing level of anger aimed towards the rioters. There is concern, however, that right-wing groups could hijack popular support and inflame further community tensions.

Louise Taggart is AKE Intelligence Analyst for Europe and the Former Soviet Union. She studied Russian at the University of St Andrews, MSt Slavonic Studies at University of Oxford, and MA Eastern European Politics, Security and Integration at University College, London.

Founded in 1991 by Andrew Kain, AKE Ltd provides security, intelligence and risk-management services to insurance, shipping, engineering and energy, as well as supporting NGOs and the news media in more challenging parts of the world.

The AKE intelligence department, based in Lloyd’s of London, provides forecasting, security risk-analysis and political risk-analysis to a variety of global clients.

Norbert Gisder is Editor in chief of GT. The Magazine for political culture (with travel trends - sailing/yachting, travelling, featuring politics, economic-news, culture, industry-news and tests, design, medicine, sport) is published almost in German language and counts actually 600.000 Readers per month all over the world.

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